Two down and two to go in the major central bank meetings we follow. Neither the Bank of Japan’s meeting last Tuesday nor the ECB’s on Thursday delivered any surprises. The BoJ maintained its steady-as-she-goes policy, and with Japan still recovering from the recent earthquake, this was entirely as expected. The market now goes back to one of its favourite games of trying to second guess when Governor Ueda will change policy; indeed, I was tempted by a bet that the BoJ will raise rates before any of the other central banks drop theirs. Tempting as it was to have a wager on that bet, the person offering the odds has a wiser head than I. 

Worldwide markets continue to row back from their expectations of an aggressive series of rate cuts this year as economies continue to show unexpected resilience, as does inflation. Last week, it was the UK's turn to serve an inflation surprise when December's CPI was reported to have bounced back. 

Despite central bank expectations and, indeed, wishes, inflation is far away from being dead and buried, and last Thursday's figures confirmed this when US CPI came in at 3.4%, above the market's best call; when taken in isolation, one set of figures doesn't set policy any more than one swallow doesn't make a summer.

Just when we all thought this year would be the year of the cut combined with lovely gentle markets, the US economy and geopolitics stirred us out of our post-festivities slumbers.

Just when you thought it was safe to relax and think about turkey and the upcoming festive season, the US Federal Reserve came along.

While last week was all about employment, this week it’s all about central banks, with the Fed, the BoE, and the ECB all set to meet over the coming days. More about that anon. Most of the currency market, except for the Japanese yen, marked time last week ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls data, which was eventually announced were stronger than expected. The response was immediate with the dollar gaining roughly 1%.

The last month of the year has started, and certainly, there is a chill in the air in London, not on Wall Street, where stock markets had an excellent week. Indeed, US stocks had the second-best November since the 1980s. With interest rates seemingly at their peak in the US, traders' appetite for risk has returned with a vengeance, and all looks good for 2024 and beyond.

Depending on your standpoint, the markets enjoyed or endured a very quiet week last week. The combination of a lack of top-tier data and a surfeit of Turkey and Pumpkin Pie in the US put paid to any energy that there may have been. With this background, it was no surprise that the currency markets traded sideways, with action postponed to this week.

Last week saw the publication of inflation figures both here and in the US. Both sets of figures certainly seem to point to a taming of inflation, and the UK's will have brought a much-needed bit of cheer to the otherwise beleaguered Prime Minister as he achieved his target of halving inflation.

The markets continued to digest the recent central bank meetings this week whilst keeping a wary eye out for further developments in the Middle East. It felt like every central banker going took their turn at the speakers' rostrum during the week. Did we learn anything new?