The Fed and Old Lady came to the stage last week with markets on tenterhooks waiting for a surprise, and as if in concert, they delivered everything but a surprise. As expected, there were no changes in interest rates and the prospect of higher for longer was reinforced once again. Whether they both will need to raise rates again is most definitely in the balance. Firstly, the Fed is relying on the US Bond market to do the “heavy lifting” that, in reality, fiscal policy should be doing, which so far has been working. The premise that higher long-term rates temper Main Street’s spending is true, but sooner or later, bond rates will drop as spending dries up, and then what? A tricky path for Jay Powell to tread, and unsurprisingly he left the door ajar for more tightening. His opposite number in the UK, Andrew Bailey, also has issues to confront. With public and private sector salaries still roaring ahead, his concern should be that the UK gets into a wage push inflation cycle and interest rates have to rise more.

The markets, understandably, have remained fundamentally "headline driven" as they await further developments from the Middle East with a bias towards risk off. This sentiment has continued to benefit the dollar against its peers, whilst gold, oil, and Bitcoin have also had their fans. The dollar, of course, is being helped by the continuing strength of the US economy, as shown, but GDP is coming in at 4.9%, beating expectations. However, the Fed's favoured inflation indicator, the PCE Deflator, came in pretty much as forecast. With data still this strong, it is understandable that US 10-year bonds continue to yield around 5% and with the high level of upcoming issuance, it's hard to see them retreating too far from these levels.

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